Natural monopolies 2026: TSM, CME, ICE, SPGI explained

2026-06-22 · By Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment

TSM, CME, ICE and SPGI all reach the maximum score in our screener because they share one rare feature: a natural, structural and nearly irreplicable monopoly. Whether it is TSMC's technological monopoly on advanced chips, the captive liquidity of CME and ICE, or the institutional reputation of S&P Global, these companies generate recurring free cash flow without having to fight for their survival.

What is a natural monopoly for an investor?

For a stock investor, a natural monopoly is any company whose competitive position is protected by barriers so solid that it is economically irrational for a competitor to try to breach them. These barriers take four main forms: network effects, industrial secrets and the experience curve, extreme switching costs, and institutional regulation.

TSMC: the technological monopoly no one can replicate

TSMC manufactures 85% of the world's advanced chips at 3nm and 5nm nodes. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm: all depend on its production lines. No customer can leave, because there is no equivalent capacity anywhere else. TSMC's monopoly rests on three simultaneous pillars: mastery of extreme ultraviolet lithography, decades of accumulated operational know-how, and the prohibitive cost of building a competing fab (between $15 and $30 billion per factory, still trailing TSMC by two to three years). The valuation at 2.2× FCF reflects the Taiwan-China geopolitical risk. For a full analysis, see our <a href='/blog/taiwan-semiconductor-tsm-analyse-fondamentale'>Taiwan Semiconductor fundamental analysis</a>.

CME Group and ICE: the liquidity monopoly

Derivatives exchanges operate through the two-sided network effect: buyers go where sellers are, and vice versa. The venue concentrating the most transactions mechanically attracts even more. No competitor can create this virtuous circle from scratch, regardless of capital. CME Group leads globally in interest rate and commodity derivatives. ICE operates the NYSE, energy markets, and bond clearing, activities made particularly defensible by post-2008 regulations requiring approved central counterparties.

S&P Global: the institutional reputation monopoly

When a company wants to issue bonds on international markets, the regulations of many countries require a rating from one of the three recognized major agencies: S&P, Moody's or Fitch. This is not an investor preference, it is a legal requirement in dozens of jurisdictions. Beyond ratings, SPGI owns the S&P 500 index and Platts energy data: three distinct monopolies under one roof.

Comparison table

Company	Type of monopoly	Est. FCF margin	FCF valuation	Score
TSM (TSMC)	Technological monopoly (EUV 3nm)	~45%	2.2×	Maximum
CME Group	Liquidity monopoly (derivatives)	~55%	22×	Maximum
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange)	Infrastructure monopoly (NYSE, clearing)	~35%	18.1×	Maximum
SPGI (S&P Global)	Institutional reputation monopoly	~40%	23.6×	Maximum

Why natural monopolies dominate our screener

A natural monopoly generates recurring revenues because its customers cannot leave. It posts high margins because it does not have to win customers against aggressive competitors. Its maintenance capex is modest. It can grow without diluting shareholders. And it raises prices without losing customers. Each of these features corresponds exactly to one of our scoring criteria.

What this means for your investment approach

Identifying a natural monopoly is only the first step. The second is assessing whether the current valuation adequately compensates for residual risks. TSMC perfectly illustrates this tension: perfect quality, real geopolitical risk. The valuation at 2.2× FCF is not a free gift, it is the counterpart to a risk the market has correctly identified.

FAQ

Why are these companies called natural monopolies?

Because their dominant position stems from the very structure of their business, not from an aggressive strategy of eliminating competitors. TSMC is alone because no one can build the same expertise in a few years. CME attracts all the liquidity because liquidity generates liquidity. These barriers are natural, structural and nearly irreversible.

TSMC is valued much lower than the others. Is it really comparable?

Yes, in terms of fundamental quality. The valuation at 2.2× FCF reflects a geopolitical discount specific to the Taiwan-China risk, not a qualitative inferiority. On our ten quality criteria, TSMC validates them all just as CME, ICE or SPGI do.

Could a competitor really challenge CME or ICE?

Theoretically possible but economically very difficult. To compete with CME on rate derivatives, you would need to create liquidity from scratch. This circle has never been broken in the history of organized financial markets.

Does the maximum score mean you should buy all four companies?

No. The score measures fundamental quality, not a buying opportunity at any given moment. This article is informational and educational, not investment advice.

How can S&P Global have a monopoly if Moody's and Fitch also exist?

It is a regulatory oligopoly, not a strict monopoly. S&P, Moody's and Fitch share a market locked to three players. No fourth entrant can obtain the same global institutional recognition without decades of effort.

About the author

Written by Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment. A self-taught individual investor, I find fundamental analysis fascinating, and it has delivered excellent results. For three years now, my performance has beaten the S&P 500. But analyzing every stock took too much time: sites with incomplete data, calculation methods and criteria never aligned with mine. And spotting the best stocks was just as time-consuming, even with my own well-defined checklist. So I put my software development background to work to build this software, base my investment strategy on its results, and share it with people who share the same passion as me. It judges a company's quality and its price separately, using criteria drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran).