Mall REITs 2026: Simon Property vs Macerich
2026-06-23 · By Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment
Simon Property Group (SPG, 5/10) and Macerich (MAC, 3/10) are the two main US mall REITs. SPG is the largest and most diversified — its Outlet Centers and mixed-use development have helped it resist. MAC faces more difficulty with lower-quality assets. Both trade at similar FCF multiples (~21×) but with very different risk profiles.
The hardest REIT sub-sector
US malls have undergone radical transformation since 2015: major tenant bankruptcies (Sears, JCPenney, Forever 21, J.Crew), e-commerce growth, millennial disengagement from department stores. Only Class A premium malls in monopoly positions in their trade areas are holding up. Simon Property Group and Macerich are the last two major publicly traded mall REITs.
Simon Property Group vs Macerich: data comparison
| Criterion | Simon Property (SPG) | Macerich (MAC) |
|---|---|---|
| Lubin screener score | 5/10 | 3/10 |
| Current P/FCF | 21.6× | 21.4× |
| Current price | $214.57 | $24.04 |
| Lubin entry target | $103.12 | $11.65 |
| Price vs target | +108% | +106% |
| Market cap | ~$65B | ~$2.5B |
| Number of properties | ~200 | ~45 |
| Mall type | Premium + Outlet | Class B/A- malls |
| Occupancy rate | ~95% | ~92% |
Simon Property: the most resilient mall REIT
Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) is the world's largest REIT by market cap. Its strength is asset quality — America's most visited malls, Simon Premium Outlets (luxury discount brands), and mixed-use developments (residential + offices + hotels on mall parking lots). SPG acquired bankrupt brands (Brooks Brothers, J.Crew) to convert them into captive tenants. Its balance sheet has improved post-2020. The 5/10 score reflects typical mall debt and moderate FCF/share growth.
Macerich: the higher-risk player
Macerich (NYSE: MAC) owns Class A- and B+ malls mainly in California, Arizona, and Mid-Atlantic. Its 3/10 score reflects structural issues: negative revenue growth, margin compression, heavy debt with restrictive covenants. MAC has sold assets to reduce debt. Its malls are less well-positioned than SPG — fewer local monopolies, less mixed-use upside. Its dividend was cut in 2020 and hasn't recovered to pre-COVID levels.
FAQ
Are US malls doomed?
Not all of them. Class A malls in local monopoly positions (only premium center within 25 miles) are holding up. That's SPG's positioning. Class B/C malls without strong anchors or monopoly positions face structural danger.
Is Simon Property a good investment despite the 5/10 score?
For income investors, SPG offers ~4.5% yield with solid coverage. For our compounding growth method, malls aren't a priority. It's a decent defensive income asset, not a growth stock.
Why is Macerich only rated 3/10?
Macerich fails most of our criteria: weak revenue growth, declining margins, falling FCF/share, high dilution, very heavy debt. Its portfolio is less premium than SPG's. Balance sheet risk is real if commercial real estate markets deteriorate.
How are malls reinventing themselves?
The best malls transform empty spaces into apartments, hotels, gyms, schools, medical centers. Simon Property has done this successfully in several markets. Mixed-use diversification is the only real long-term value creation lever for the sector.
Analyser une action sur Lubin Investment
About the author
Written by Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment. A self-taught individual investor, I have analyzed stocks through their fundamentals for several years and invest my own money with this method. I codified it into a tool that judges a company's quality and its price separately, using criteria drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran).