United Parcel Service (UPS) vs FedEx (FDX): the numbers side by side
By Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment
On our 10 quality criteria, United Parcel Service comes out ahead. On price, FedEx trades cheapest relative to its free cash flow. In other words, comparing United Parcel Service and FedEx means answering two separate questions, and they do not necessarily have the same answer.
Both stocks side by side
| Metric | United Parcel Service (UPS) | FedEx (FDX) |
|---|---|---|
| Quality score | 4/10 | 3/10 |
| P/FCF | 20.8× | 18.8× |
| Sector | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Integrated Freight & Logistics |
| Price | 107.70 USD | 330.22 USD |
| Market cap | 91.5B | 75.7B |
Quality: which one passes more criteria
United Parcel Service passes 4/10 of our quality criteria, against 3/10 for FedEx. The criteria are identical for both: profitability, revenue and free cash flow per share growth, share count control, free cash flow margin, margin expansion, return on capital, debt, conversion of earnings into cash, and cash conversion cycle. No weighting, no opinion: it is a count.
Price: which one is cheaper
FedEx trades at 18.8× its free cash flow, against 20.8× for United Parcel Service. A lower multiple means you pay fewer years of cash for the same slice of the business. Mind the reflex though: a low multiple is only a bargain if the quality holds up. That is why we judge the two separately, and never one through the other.
United Parcel Service's accounts are public: 10-K filings with the SEC (EDGAR).
FedEx's accounts are public: 10-K filings with the SEC (EDGAR).
How to decide
There is no "better stock" in the abstract, there is a better stock for a given goal. If you want the most solid financial quality, follow the score. If you want to pay the least for the cash produced, follow the P/FCF. If both point to the same name, the case is simple. If they diverge, you are trading off paying more for a better business against paying less for a more questionable one. The two detailed pages below give the criterion-by-criterion breakdown for United Parcel Service and for FedEx.
Frequently asked questions
Should you buy United Parcel Service or FedEx?
United Parcel Service passes 4/10 of our quality criteria, against 3/10 for FedEx. The criteria are identical for both: profitability, revenue and free cash flow per share growth, share count control, free cash flow margin, margin expansion, return on capital, debt, conversion of earnings into cash, and cash conversion cycle. No weighting, no opinion: it is a count. FedEx trades at 18.8× its free cash flow, against 20.8× for United Parcel Service. A lower multiple means you pay fewer years of cash for the same slice of the business. Mind the reflex though: a low multiple is only a bargain if the quality holds up. That is why we judge the two separately, and never one through the other.
United Parcel Service or FedEx: which one is cheaper?
FedEx : 18.8× against 20.8×.
Can you hold both?
Nothing prevents it, and it is common when both pass our quality criteria. Keep in mind that two companies in the same sector often react to the same shocks, so holding both diversifies less than it looks. This page is a numbers comparison, not a recommendation.