When the method spots a winner early
The "opportunity of the moment" signal (quality score ≥ 8/10 and P/FCF at the low of its own history) has at times flagged stocks years before the market caught up. Here are examples from our point-in-time backtest.
Winners spotted early
Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Lam Research (LRCX), Micron (MU), Ciena (CIEN), Apple (AAPL), Rambus (RMBS), Mueller Industries (MLI), Quanta Services (PWR), Arista Networks (ANET), FormFactor (FORM), Amphenol (APH) and PulteGroup (PHM) were among the backtest opportunities and far outpaced the S&P 500 over their holding period.
Honest reading
These are the best cases, not the average: of 310 opportunities in the backtest (entries from 2014 to 2022), only about 34% beat the S&P 500, with survivorship bias acknowledged. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and nothing here is investment advice.