Airbus (AIR) or Boeing (BA): Who Makes the Cash?

2026-10-09 · By Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment

Airbus is the better of the two on cash today: about 4 bn euros of free cash flow in 2025 and a stable share count, while Boeing burned 1.9 bn dollars and expanded its share count by 28% in three years. But Airbus trades 21% above my reasonable buy price, and Boeing has no cash flow to value.

On July 29, 2026, Airbus published its first-half results: 351 aircraft delivered, sales up 12% to 33.2 bn euros, and negative free cash flow of 1.2 bn euros. Headlines mostly picked up the record order book. Almost none picked up the line that matters to a shareholder: cash.

A day earlier, Boeing had delivered 171 aircraft in the second quarter, including 129 737s, and reported positive free cash flow of 631 million dollars. It also reported a net loss of 428 million dollars and a 280 million dollar charge on the VC-25B presidential aircraft. Same sky, same global duopoly, two earnings nights that look nothing alike.

When someone asks you "Airbus or Boeing", the bar-stool answer is that one builds planes that fly and the other builds planes that cause problems. That is not my question. Mine is drier: which of these two businesses turns its sales into money that stays in the shareholder's pocket, and what price does the stock ask for it?

One duopoly, two cash trajectories

A plane maker collects much of the price at delivery, but it builds months ahead. When the production rate rises, inventory swells before the cash comes in: free cash flow (the money left after paying bills and investments) can be negative even in perfect commercial health. That is exactly Airbus's explanation for its first half: the outflow comes mostly from inventory built to support the ramp-up. The group keeps its annual target of about 4.5 bn euros, which assumes a very strong second half.

Look at the trajectory, not the snapshot. According to my tool's series, Airbus free cash flow went from 3.8 bn euros in 2022 to 3.2 in 2023, 3.7 in 2024 and 4.0 bn in 2025, while sales climbed from 58.8 to 73.4 bn. It is not spectacular, it is steady. And the share count has barely moved (+0.1% a year): what the company earns is shared among the same number of owners.

Boeing's series tells another story: 2.3 bn dollars of free cash flow in 2022, 4.4 in 2023, then a drop to minus 14.3 bn in 2024 and minus 1.9 in 2025, while sales rebounded from 66.6 to 89.5 bn. Sales are coming back, cash is not. And to repair the balance sheet, the share count went from 595 to 762 million, 28% more in three years. Each existing share is worth a little less of the company: that is dilution, and it costs you per-share returns even when the business improves.

Metric	Airbus	Boeing
2025 sales	73.4 bn EUR	89.5 bn USD
2025 free cash flow	4.0 bn EUR	minus 1.9 bn USD
Free cash flow, 2022 to 2025	from 3.8 to 4.0 bn EUR	from 2.3 to minus 1.9 bn USD
Share count, 2022 to 2025	stable (+0.1% a year)	+28%
Deliveries, 2026	351 over the half-year	171 in the quarter
My quality score	5 out of 10	6 out of 10, fragile
Price in years of free cash flow	36.7, mid-range of its history	not computable, negative cash
Reasonable buy price in my model	148 EUR	not computable
Observed price	187 EUR, 21% overvalued	187.75 USD

Why Boeing's score does not say what you think

Boeing scores 6 out of 10 in my grid of ten financial criteria, against 5 for Airbus. Taken literally, that is a point for Boeing. It is a reading illusion, and I would rather show you why. Several Boeing criteria are simply not computable, because free cash flow was not positive over the last twelve months: return on capital, debt relative to cash, and conversion of earnings into cash. A non-computable criterion does not count as a pass, nor as a fail, and above all it stays invisible in the final score.

The points Boeing earns are real but narrow: a favorable operating cycle (customers pay deposits before delivery, which finances production) and margins widening from a very low base. The ones it loses are structural, starting with 5.4% annual dilution. Airbus loses its points elsewhere: a return on capital of 8.9% under my 15% bar, compressing margins and cash-per-share growth of 3% a year. It is a good industrial, not a compounding machine.

On Boeing's side, context matters as much as the score. The group has raised the 737 rate to 47 aircraft a month, opened a second assembly line and shows a record backlog of 715 bn dollars. It targets 1 to 3 bn dollars of free cash flow for the year and says it cut debt by 8.2 bn dollars since January, according to the second-quarter report. Part of the quarter's cash came from favorable collection timing, which will not necessarily repeat. Details are in the annual filing with the SEC.

The price: overvaluation at Airbus, fog at Boeing

I judge price with P/FCF: the stock price divided by free cash flow per share, meaning the number of years of cash you buy. Airbus trades at 36.7 times its free cash flow. That is high in absolute terms, but it is right in the middle of its own history (around the 52nd percentile on the site's series): the market grants it neither an unusual premium nor a discount. It is paying for a ramp-up it believes will last, with a target of 70 to 75 A320s a month by end of 2027, according to Airbus's half-year release.

My model looks for the price at which a 15% annual return remains reachable. For Airbus it gives 148 euros. The stock is around 187, so 21% above that entry point. This is not a red flag, it is a very good company priced for everything to go right, with little margin if the expected cash half slips. For Boeing, my tool produces no price, and that silence is information in itself: until free cash flow is durably positive, valuing the stock means betting on a recovery, not assessing it.

My verdict, without personal advice: Airbus is the better business of the two and the only one I can put a price on, but it is not cheap; Boeing is a turnaround bet whose outcome depends on three years of positive cash nobody has seen yet. Separating a business's quality from its price, in seconds, is what I wanted to be able to do for any stock. You can see the full files on the Airbus page and the Boeing page, or reread my methodology.

FAQ

Airbus or Boeing: which generates more cash?

Airbus, clearly. Its free cash flow has stayed between 3.2 and 4.0 bn euros a year since 2022, while Boeing's went from plus 4.4 bn dollars in 2023 to minus 14.3 bn in 2024 then minus 1.9 bn in 2025, according to my tool's series.

Why is Airbus free cash flow negative in the first half of 2026?

Because it is building inventory to raise production: planes are built before they are delivered and paid for. The group reported about minus 1.2 bn euros over six months and keeps a target of about 4.5 bn euros for the year, which assumes a very strong second half.

Is Boeing's dilution a problem?

Yes for the current shareholder: the share count went from 595 to 762 million between 2022 and 2025, 28% more. Each existing share represents a smaller slice of the company and of the cash it will produce.

About the author

Written by Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment. A self-taught individual investor, I find fundamental analysis fascinating, and it has delivered excellent results. For three years now, my performance has beaten the S&P 500. But analyzing every stock took too much time: sites with incomplete data, calculation methods and criteria never aligned with mine. And spotting the best stocks was just as time-consuming, even with my own well-defined checklist. So I put my software development background to work to build this software, base my investment strategy on its results, and share it with people who share the same passion as me. It judges a company's quality and its price separately, using criteria drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran).