Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): Q2 2026 results, my verdict

2026-07-30 · By Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment

BUD: see the full analysis on Lubin Investment

Anheuser-Busch InBev reported on July 30, 2026 revenue growth of 5.6% and adjusted earnings per share up 23.4%, driven by the football World Cup and its flagship brands. My quality filter validates 8 out of 10 criteria. But the stock trades near the priciest point of its recent history: here is how I separate the good news from the good price.

What just landed: the World Cup boosts volumes

Anheuser-Busch InBev released its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026: revenue up 5.6% year over year, underlying (adjusted) earnings per share up 23.4%. CEO Michel Doukeris summarized the quarter as solid execution of the group's strategy despite a still-uncertain consumer environment. The company maintained its 2026 outlook: EBITDA growth of 4% to 8%, net capital expenditure of $3.5 to $4 billion, and a normalized tax rate of 26% to 28%.

The real driver of the quarter is the 2026 football World Cup. Doukeris quantified its direct contribution at 20 to 30 basis points of volume growth for the quarter, while stressing a much larger benefit to come: the event serves as a launchpad for Michelob ULTRA's expansion across the Americas. The immediate result: Anheuser-Busch InBev was the number one share gainer across the entire alcohol category, both in Q2 and across the first half of 2026, with Michelob Ultra, Busch Light and Busch Light Apple taking the top three spots for volume-share gains in the whole beer industry. The Beyond Beer portfolio (alcoholic drinks beyond classic beer, such as seltzers and ready-to-drink cocktails) posted revenue growth at a very high rate, roughly 70% to 75%, a sign that portfolio diversification is starting to genuinely move the group's numbers.

Why my filter validates 8 out of 10 criteria

Financially, Anheuser-Busch InBev checks most boxes: a net margin of 11.5% (out of every $100 in sales, $11.50 ends up as net profit, a modest level for a consumer-goods giant but consistent with the weight of its debt), cash profitability (free cash flow margin, the money genuinely left after the bills) of 18.9%, cash return on capital employed (Cash ROCE, what every dollar reinvested in the business actually earns back) of 20%, and margins that keep expanding year after year. The most telling signal lies elsewhere: free cash flow per share grows 13.6% a year on average over five years, while total revenue rises only 0.9% a year over the same period. How can one number stagnate while another climbs by double digits? Through share buybacks (shares outstanding shrink 0.52% a year) and, above all, cost discipline plus steady deleveraging, which leave more cash available per share every year even when total sales barely move.

The criterion that fails most clearly is debt: net debt would take 5.48 years of free cash flow to fully repay, well above the threshold I consider healthy. This figure is not a recent accident: it stems from the 2016 acquisition of SABMiller, a deal worth over $100 billion that turned Anheuser-Busch InBev into the global giant it is today by absorbing its biggest rival, largely funded with debt. Ten years later, the company is still methodically paying down that legacy rather than facing current financial distress: expanding margins, solid cash profitability and a 20% Cash ROCE show a business generating more than enough to honor its bill, slowly but surely.

The price: near the top of its own history

Anheuser-Busch InBev trades today at 15.5 times its annual free cash flow (the P/FCF, the stock price divided by the cash it actually generates). Compared to the broader market, that is not excessive. But compared to ITS OWN recent history, it is a very different signal: this multiple sits at the 87th percentile of its last five years, in other words pricier than 87% of the time over that period. My reasonable-buy-price model, which projects the five-year cash-per-share trajectory, puts the entry point at $63.04 against a current price of $86.14: a 26.8% premium.

Why is the market paying more than usual for the same company today? The answer fits in one word: momentum. After years when the Anheuser-Busch InBev thesis was mostly defensive (dividend, deleveraging, mature market), the combination of the World Cup, share gains and Beyond Beer hands the market a growth story again, which normally justifies a more generous multiple. My verdict: the premium is partly earned for this renewed momentum, but it already prices in an optimistic scenario about how durable the World Cup effect will be, while structural sales growth stays close to zero (0.9% a year) once the one-off effect is stripped out. I do not see an urgent buy at this price level.

The real debate

The whole thesis comes down to one question: are the World Cup and Michelob Ultra starting a genuine, durable growth inflection, or are they just a one-off spike in an otherwise mature beer market? If you believe in the inflection, today's price is justified and could even understate what comes next. If you think it is a flash in the pan, you are paying a premium today for growth that should fall back to its near-zero historical pace as soon as next year.

How I settle it

I keep Anheuser-Busch InBev on my watchlist as a decent-quality company (8 out of 10 criteria), with a balance sheet that improves year after year, but I do not buy at a price that already prices in an optimistic scenario. I am waiting for either a pullback toward my reasonable buy price, or confirmation over several quarters that volume growth holds up beyond the World Cup effect. That is exactly the kind of discipline I wanted to automate by building my stock analysis site: separating good news from a good price.

Anheuser-Busch InBev validates 8 out of 10 criteria in my quality filter, driven by solid cash profitability and real cost discipline.
Free cash flow per share +13.6%/year over 5 years despite almost flat sales (+0.9%/year): the story is buybacks and deleveraging, not organic growth.
Net debt equal to 5.48 years of free cash flow, a legacy of the 2016 SABMiller acquisition, being paid down methodically.
P/FCF of 15.5x, at the 87th percentile of its own 5-year history: expensive for this stock, a 26.8% premium according to my reasonable-buy-price model.
Verdict: solid quality and real momentum from the World Cup, but a price that already prices in an optimistic scenario about its durability.

FAQ

What is P/FCF and why compare it to its own history?

P/FCF (price-to-free-cash-flow) divides the stock price by the cash the company genuinely generates each year. Comparing it to the whole market says little; comparing it to its OWN 5-year history says whether the stock is expensive or cheap FOR ITSELF. At 15.5x, Anheuser-Busch InBev sits at the 87th percentile of its own history: pricier than 87% of the time over the period.

Why is Anheuser-Busch InBev's debt so high?

It dates back to the 2016 acquisition of SABMiller (over $100 billion), which created the world's number one brewer. The group has been methodically paying down this debt for ten years; it is not a sign of current distress, but the legacy of a historic acquisition.

Should you buy Anheuser-Busch InBev after these results?

My quality filter is favorable (8/10), but my valuation model shows a 26.8% premium after this World-Cup-boosted quarter. I would rather wait for a pullback or confirmation that growth holds without the one-off event effect. This is not personalized investment advice, do your own research.

What is Cash ROCE?

The return on capital genuinely reinvested in the business: for every dollar put into the business, how much it earns back in cash each year. At 20%, Anheuser-Busch InBev efficiently turns capital into available cash.

About the author

Written by Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment. A self-taught individual investor, I find fundamental analysis fascinating, and it has delivered excellent results. For three years now, my performance has beaten the S&P 500. But analyzing every stock took too much time: sites with incomplete data, calculation methods and criteria never aligned with mine. And spotting the best stocks was just as time-consuming, even with my own well-defined checklist. So I put my software development background to work to build this software, base my investment strategy on its results, and share it with people who share the same passion as me. It judges a company's quality and its price separately, using criteria drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran).