Fundamental analysis HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc)

Updated on 07/20/2026

Method and analysis by Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment. Score computed automatically, with no human opinion.

We analyzed Harley-Davidson stock against the 10 quality criteria of Lubin Investment. The company gets a quality score of 2/10, meaning low quality, and a P/FCF valuation multiple of 259.3×.

Harley-Davidson fails part of our quality criteria without the price making up for it. Neither quality nor valuation argues in its favour today, according to our 10 hard criteria.

Sector: Recreational Vehicles. Listing: US. Current price: 26.01 USD.

Lubin scoring methodology

Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)'s score is calculated automatically from 10 objective financial criteria, with no human intervention or opinion. Each criterion is validated (YES / PARTIAL / NO) based on thresholds drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran). The final score is the sum of validations.

The thresholds come from the financial literature, not from our preferences: see the valuation work of Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) and the SEC investor education resources (investor.gov).

Harley-Davidson's accounts are public: you can check every figure in its official 10-K filings with the SEC (EDGAR).

The 10 quantitative criteria analyzed

1. Profitable: net margin > 5%
2. Growing revenue: revenue growing > 10%/year over 5 years
3. Growing earnings per share: FCF per share adjusted for stock-based compensation, > 10%/year over 5 years
4. Share count under control: stable or declining (net buybacks = value creation for shareholders)
5. Growing revenue per employee: revenue and revenue per employee both grow ≥ 10%/year over 5 years; partial when only one growth driver reaches its tier (fallback: free cash flow margin > 10% when employee history is unavailable)
6. Expanding margins: operating margin widens over 5 years (operating leverage)
7. Return on invested capital: Cash ROCE > 15% per year
8. Debt under control: net debt repayable in less than 3 years of free cash flow
9. Earnings converted to cash: free cash flow exceeds accounting net income
10. Net collection period: short or negative cash conversion cycle

Its price against peers

Against the 5 other Recreational Vehicles stocks we have scored, Harley-Davidson trades at 259.3× its free cash flow, versus a median of 5.7× for that basket. On price alone, Harley-Davidson is therefore more expensive than its peers. That says nothing about its quality: at Lubin Investment, quality and price are judged separately, and a low multiple is only a bargain if the quality holds up.

Frequently asked questions

Is Harley-Davidson a quality stock?

Harley-Davidson gets a quality score of 2/10 (low quality), calculated over the 10 Lubin Investment criteria: profitability, revenue and free cash flow growth, share buybacks, margins, debt and return on capital.

How is Harley-Davidson's score calculated?

The score is the total of validated criteria (YES / PARTIAL / NO) using thresholds drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran), automatically and with no human opinion.

What is Harley-Davidson's P/FCF?

The price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) multiple of Harley-Davidson stock is 259.3×. At Lubin Investment, valuation is judged separately from quality.

Where to see Harley-Davidson's full analysis?

The full interactive analysis (10-criteria detail, history, P/FCF valuation, sector comparisons) is available at https://lubin-investment.com/analyse/HOG?lng=en.

Other stocks in the Recreational Vehicles sector

• Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.,Ltd (603129.SS), score 8/10, P/FCF 13.1×
• Trigano (TRI.PA), score 7/10, P/FCF 5.7×
• Novamarine (NOVA.MI), score 7/10
• Ferretti (YACHT.MI), score 6/10

Go further

👉 See the full interactive analysis of HOG

Other resources : All stocks in the Recreational Vehicles sector.