Danish stocks: Novo Nordisk isn't the best of them
2026-10-16 · By Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment
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Of nine Danish stocks screened, the top rated is Ambu (8 out of 10), ahead of Vestas and ISS (7). Novo Nordisk, the best known, gets only 6. Among the six with a readable buy price, three trade below it: Vestas, Demant and DSV. Denmark sells fame more than quality.
Ambu, Vestas, ISS: Danish quality isn't where you look for it
Think Danish stock market and you think Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy, whose market value once outweighed its home country's economy. So I screened nine Copenhagen stocks with the grid I use everywhere. On one side, a quality score out of 10 built on concrete criteria: profitability, sales and cash growth, buybacks, debt. On the other, separately, a buy price: the maximum price I would pay to aim for a 15% annual return over five years.
The result is a surprise. The top score does not go to the global giant but to Ambu, a maker of single-use endoscopes, with 8 out of 10. Vestas (wind turbines) and ISS (building services) follow at 7. Novo Nordisk and Demant (hearing aids) get only 6. A note on method: I tested the Danish names my tool could load, nine in all. Ørsted, Carlsberg, Pandora, Genmab and Novonesis could not be loaded that day, so the sample does not claim to be exhaustive.
For six of these companies the buy price is readable and can be compared with today's price. For the other three (Novo Nordisk, Coloplast, Rockwool) it is not, and I explain why below: better to say so than to hand you a falsely precise number.
| Company | Score | Price (DKK) | Buy price (DKK) | Price versus buy price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambu | 8 | 78 | 73 | 7% above |
| Vestas | 7 | 189 | 195 | 3% below |
| ISS | 7 | 299 | 202 | 48% above |
| Demant | 6 | 358 | 375 | 5% below |
| Maersk | 5 | 23,400 | 9,606 | 144% above |
| DSV | 4 | 1,188 | 1,287 | 8% below |
Three companies trade below my buy price: Vestas, Demant and DSV. But look at the scores: DSV has only 4 out of 10, and its "good price" says nothing about a quality that is eroding. The table doesn't point to bargains, it sorts situations, and what matters is reading company by company.
Vestas: a recovery visible in the numbers, not yet in the cash
Vestas builds wind turbines and then services them for its customers. It scores 7 out of 10 with a cash ROCE of 29.7% (the cash generated each year relative to the capital employed: the higher it is, the harder each krone invested works) and no net debt. Cash per share is up 174% a year over the measured period, a figure inflated by a starting point close to zero after difficult years. I read it as a rebound, not a lasting pace.
The second quarter report, published on 12 August 2026, shows the rebound up close: revenue of 4.7 billion euros (up 26%), operating margin before special items of 9.4% against 1.5% a year earlier, firm orders of 3,349 megawatts (67% more) and an order backlog of 76.9 billion euros including services. Management raises its 2026 margin range to 7 to 9% and launches a 400 million euro buyback.
One trait of the business is worth knowing: a wind turbine maker's free cash flow swings widely from one quarter to the next. In the series I pulled, the first quarter has been negative every year since 2022, and the last one carries most of the year's cash. That is my reading of those series, not a company statement. At 189 kroner, Vestas trades 3% below my buy price: a fair price for a quality that is improving, provided the margin holds.
Novo Nordisk: the biggest name, a middle-of-the-pack score
Novo Nordisk scores 6 out of 10. Its strengths are huge: a 33% net margin (out of 100 kroner of sales, 33 stay as profit), sales up from 177 billion kroner in 2022 to 309 billion in 2025, modest buybacks. What holds it back is the trend: margins are compressing, only 28% of profit turns into cash, and free cash flow fell from 70 billion kroner in 2024 to 29 billion in 2025, on the data I pull. My tool itself flagged that figure as suspect (a partial year or a one-off event), so I don't build a firm conclusion on it.
The stock is valued at about 40 times its free cash flow (the cash left once bills are paid and investments made): you pay for 40 years of that cash. For a drugmaker whose second quarter 2026 results point to 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit between flat and down 6% at constant exchange rates, that valuation assumes the next wave of products takes over. The Wegovy pill already exceeds 265,000 weekly prescriptions in the United States according to mid-July 2026 prescription data, but my resilience assessment notes that semaglutide's patent protection runs out around 2033.
My buy price isn't usable here: when cash growth can't be calculated, my model prudently assumes a 20% annual decline, which gives a very low price (32 kroner) that doesn't really describe Novo. What I take away: a remarkable company, a demanding valuation, and a bet on what comes next rather than a bargain. You can rerun the exercise on the Novo Nordisk page.
Maersk and DSV: two cycles, two readings
Transport shows the same mechanism from two sides. Maersk, the top container shipper, is a pure cyclical: freight rates do everything. Its revenue went from 81.5 billion dollars in 2022 to 54.0 in 2025, and its free cash flow from 30.3 to 5.0 billion. It scores 5 out of 10: well rated on debt (only 2 years of cash) and on its shrinking share count (nearly 6% a year), poorly rated on the sales trajectory.
The second quarter of 2026 still surprised: operating profit before depreciation of 3.0 billion dollars, revenue of 15.8 billion (20% more) and a full year outlook raised to 10.5 to 12.5 billion, according to the company. Maersk trades 144% above my buy price while being valued at only 11 times its cash. No contradiction: a cyclical looks cheap at the top of its cycle, when profits are at their highest. Damodaran explains this trap better than I do: a low multiple on peak profits doesn't mean the stock is cheap.
DSV, the freight forwarder, offers the opposite picture: 4 out of 10, but a 34% cash ROCE and a valuation of 15 times its cash. The score weighs the trajectory: earnings per share fall 12.6% a year over the period, sales grow 1.6% a year. The company is digesting the Schenker acquisition: according to its 22 July 2026 announcement, integration is progressing, with 9 billion kroner of annual synergies targeted and over 8,000 office jobs cut. The price, 8% under my buy price, says the market is waiting for proof, not that the doubt is lifted.
Ambu, ISS, Demant: the least known, the most interesting
Ambu has my best Danish score, and its reason for being is easy to grasp: a reusable endoscope must be cleaned between two patients, with a contamination risk and a reprocessing cost, whereas a single-use endoscope is thrown away. In the third quarter of its 2025/26 year, published on 25 August 2026, organic growth reached 10.3%, operating margin 13.5%, and the endoscopy business grew 16%, according to the company. Net margin is only 4.4%, but it is expanding.
The drawback is the price: about 40 times free cash flow, and a share price 7% above my buy price. The share count rises 1.7% a year, which dilutes shareholders. Ambu is the clearest quality in the sample, but also the most demanding on growth: the 10% a year has to last to justify the price.
ISS, which cleans and runs buildings, sits at the other end of the spectrum. A 3.1% net margin, a labor-heavy business with no spectacular moat, but a share count falling 3.4% a year and an expanding margin. Its 135% cash ROCE doesn't make it exceptional: it comes from a tiny capital base. It is valued at 15 times its cash, in the upper part of its own range (86th percentile of its history), and trades 48% above my buy price. Demant, finally, scores 6 out of 10: strong profitability (25.5% cash ROCE), 2.6% of shares bought back each year, but debt of 6.6 years of free cash flow and compressing margins. At 5% below my buy price, it's a fair price for average quality, not a bargain.
Coloplast and Rockwool: the price, not the business, is the obstacle
The last two companies share Novo Nordisk's reading problem. Coloplast (medical devices) falls to 4 out of 10: a valuation around 74 times its cash, debt equal to 15 years of free cash flow, a 7.8% return on capital and compressing margins despite sales up 11.6% a year. Rockwool (insulation) gets 6: a 0.7% net margin, nearly flat sales, a valuation close to 39 times cash.
| Company | Score | What weighs |
|---|---|---|
| Novo Nordisk | 6 | Compressing margins, 28% of profit turned into cash, valuation near 40 times cash |
| Coloplast | 4 | Debt of 15 years of free cash flow, 7.8% return on capital, valuation near 74 times cash |
| Rockwool | 6 | 0.7% net margin, flat sales, valuation near 39 times cash |
For these three, cash growth can't be calculated, so my model applies its prudent 20% annual decline and produces a buy price of 24 to 32 kroner against share prices of 193 to 468. It would be misleading to show you a "700% gap": it is a calculation artifact, not a judgment on these companies. The real signal is in the valuation ratios, which are high.
My verdict on the Danish stock market
Denmark is a country where the most famous names aren't the ones my grid prefers. Of nine stocks, none reaches 9 out of 10, the best (Ambu) is priced at a premium, and the three globally known companies (Novo Nordisk, Coloplast, Maersk) are either expensive, cyclical or debt heavy. The three below my buy price (Vestas, Demant, DSV) deserve real reading work, not a reflex purchase.
The pattern echoes what I find among neighbors: Sweden sells quality that is rarely on sale, and my European quality and price tour shows that fame gets paid for. On Nordic insurers, I detailed Tryg and Gjensidige: that's where Denmark interested me most.
FAQ
What are the best Danish stocks in 2026?
Of nine stocks screened on 16 October 2026, Ambu scores 8 out of 10, followed by Vestas and ISS at 7, then Novo Nordisk, Demant and Rockwool at 6. The score measures business quality, not price.
Is Novo Nordisk a good stock?
It is a highly profitable company (33% net margin), but my tool scores it 6 out of 10: compressing margins, falling free cash flow and a valuation near 40 times cash. The quality is real; the price needs growth to restart.
Which Danish stocks trade below the method's buy price?
Among the six with a readable buy price: Vestas (3% below), Demant (5%) and DSV (8%). For Novo Nordisk, Coloplast and Rockwool the buy price isn't usable.
Related reading
- Italian stocks: beyond Ferrari, two real gems
- Dutch stocks: ASML isn't alone at the top
- Swedish stocks: rare quality, almost never on sale
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About the author
Written by Lubin Danilo, founder of Lubin Investment. A self-taught individual investor, I find fundamental analysis fascinating, and it has delivered excellent results. For three years now, my performance has beaten the S&P 500. But analyzing every stock took too much time: sites with incomplete data, calculation methods and criteria never aligned with mine. And spotting the best stocks was just as time-consuming, even with my own well-defined checklist. So I put my software development background to work to build this software, base my investment strategy on its results, and share it with people who share the same passion as me. It judges a company's quality and its price separately, using criteria drawn from the financial literature (Warren Buffett, Michael Mauboussin, Aswath Damodaran).